Apple Watch Shipments Expected to Fall 25% This Year

KGI Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo, who is one of the most reliable Apple analyst out there, estimated in a note sent to clients Monday that shipments of the Apple Watch will decline 25 percent in the calendar 2016, despite the expected introduction of a second-generation model some time later this year.

Kuo blames the decline on the wearables market, which is still in its infancy right now — and the Apple Watch itself. He believes there is a shortage of killer applications, limited battery life, and a reliance on the iPhone for connectivity, with plenty of room for improvement.

It doesn’t help that Apple Watch is a year old now, and it looks like the original model will be sticking around for some time. Kuo doesn’t expect the Apple Watch 2 to enter production until the third quarter, which means we’ll likely have to wait until this fall to get it.

Apple will likely announce the device alongside the iPhone 7 later this year, but it won’t be vastly different to the existing Apple Watch. Kuo expects this will be more of an “S model” refresh, with minor improvements and no change to the current form factor.

Another analyst, Brian White, recently predicted that the Apple Watch 2 will launch in time for Apple’s worldwide developers conference this summer. White, who has a terrible track record predicting Apple’s moves, thinks the device will be 40 percent slimmer than the current model.

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